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Analisa Teknikal (Technical Analysis)

Posted by administrator on October 20, 2010
Analisa Teknikal (technical analysis), Commodity Channel Index, Faktor-faktor Penggerak Nilai Tukar Mata Uang, Forex Currency Trading Explained — Fx Trading, Forex Trading, Trading Forex dengan gunakan Berita / No Comments

Analisa Teknikal adalah sebuah metode peramalan/estimasi pergerakan harga dengan melihat data historis harga yang terjadi di pasar. Data harga adalah jenis data yang paling banyak digunakan dalam proses analisa, walaupun ada beberapa jenis data lain yang juga digunakan dalam proses analisa seperti volume dan open interest dalam kontrak futures.

Analisa Teknikal adalah sebuah metode peramalan/estimasi pergerakan harga dengan melihat data historis harga yang terjadi di pasar. Data harga adalah jenis data yang paling banyak digunakan dalam proses analisa, walaupun ada beberapa jenis data lain yang juga digunakan dalam proses analisa seperti volume dan open interest dalam kontrak futures. Pada intinya ketika menggunakan metode analisa teknikal apapun adalah kembali ke dasar teorinya, yang secara metodelogi telah terbukti kinerja untuk periode waktu yang signifikan. Setelah menemukan sebuah sistem trading yang sesuai, barulah bisa dicari teknik-teknik lain yang dapat digabungkan dengan metode trading yang sudah ada.

Hampir semua trader menggunakan analisa teknikal walaupun jumlahnya minimum. Bahkan pihak-pihak yang sangat mengacu pada analisa fundamental akan menggunakan atau melihat terlebih dahulu grafik harga sebelum melakukan transaksi.

Pada level teori yang sangat dasar, grafik membantu trader untuk menentukan level yang ideal untuk masuk pasar sebelum melakukan transaksi. Grafik menyediakan efek visual dari data historis pergerakan harga. Karenanya, trader dapat melihat grafik dan mengetahui apakah mereka membeli di harga yang wajar (berdasarkan data historis harga disebuah pasar tertentu), menjual di harga tertinggi periodik atau mungkin melakukan transaksi ketika pasar bergerak menyamping (sideways). Ini hanya beberapa kondisi pasar yang dapat di identifikasi oleh grafik. Grafik juga memungkinkan adanya analisa yang lebih canggih dan maju dari pergerakan harga.

Dalam prakteknya, mungkin seorang analis teknikal mengesampingkan fundamental pasar dengan kesibukan dalam melihat grafik dan tabel data. Bagaimanapun, ini tergantung dari tipikal dari analis tersebut.

Asumsi analisa teknikal:

  • Fundamental pasar telah berpengaruh terhadap harga pasar saat ini. Jadi fundamental pasar dan faktor lainnya, seperti perbedaan pendapat, harapan, rasa takut, dan sentimen pelaku pasar, tidak perlu dipelajari lebih lanjut.
  • Sejarah berulang dengan sendirinya dan karena itu pasar bergerak di kisaran yang dapat diprediksi, atau setidaknya memiliki pola tertentu. Pola-pola ini dihasilkan dari pergerakan harga, dinamakan sinyal. Tujuan analisa teknikal adalah untuk mendapatkan sinyal yang diberikan oleh kondisi pasar saat ini dengan mempelajari sinyal masa lalu.
  • Harga bergerak dalam bentuk tren. Analis teknikal biasanya tidak percaya bahwa fluktuasi harga bergerak dalam kondisi tidak terprediksi dan acak. Harga dapat bergerak dalam salah satu dari tiga bentuk arah, naik, turun, atau menyamping (sideways). Ketika sebuah tren terbentuk dari arah-arah pasar yang ada, biasanya akan berlanjut sampai beberapa periode.

Sistem dari analisa teknikal biasanya termasuk grafik harga, grafik volume, dan beberapa metode matematik lainnya dari pola dan perilaku pasar. Metode manipulasi matematik dari bermacam-macam jenis data pasar ini digunakan untuk menentukan kekuatan dan ketahanan dari tren tertentu. Jadi analis teknikal cenderung untuk menggunakan berbagai bentuk analisis teknikal sebelum melakukan transaksi daripada hanya mengandalkan grafik harga untuk mengestimasi nilai pasar di masa datang.

Sama halnya dengan aspek lain dari trading, dalam penggunaan analisa teknikal harus disiplin. Seringkali seorang trader gagal melakukan transaksi, membeli atau menjual, ketika harga telah mencapai pola teknikal yang diidentifikasi sebagai sinyal masuk atau keluar pasar. Ada banyak faktor lainnya yang berpengaruh terhadap hal ini seperti teknologi, fundamental dan lain sebagainya.

Kesalahan umum yang sering dibuat oleh para trader adalah mengharapkan harga akan berbalik arah terhadap posisi yang merugi dan terlalu cepat melikuidasi posisi yang sedang mengalami keuntungan. Dibutuhkan kedisiplinan tinggi dalam penggunaan analisa teknikal.

Grafik harga:

  • Bentuk Grafik Batang
    Terdapat banyak jenis grafik yang menunjukkan pergerakan harga, yang paling umum digunakan adalah grafik batang (bar chart). Tiap batang (bar) menandakan pergerakan harga di satu periode tertentu, satu menit, satu hari, atau satu bulan. Pergerakan harga dalam bentuk batang-batang ini akan membuat pola-pola tertentu pada suatu periode.
  • Bentuk Candlestick
    Seperti grafik batang, pola candlestick dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi pasar. Karena bentuknya memiliki warna, candlestick lebih memiliki efek visual dalam polanya daripada grafik batang.
  • Bentuk poin & figur
    Pola dalam bentuk ini sebenarnya sama dengan pola yang dihasilkan oleh grafik batang namun poin & figur tidak menggunakan skala waktu untuk mengindikasikan hari tertentu yang berhubungan dengan pergerakan harga tertentu.

Indikator teknikal:
Dibawah ini adalah beberapa tipe indikator yang digunakan dalam analisa teknikal.

  • Indikator Tren
    Tren adalah sebuah kata yang menggambarkan adanya pergerakan satu arah yang kuat di untuk beberapa waktu ke depan. Tren bergerak dalam 3 arah: naik, turun, dan menyamping. Indikator tren menghaluskan data harga yang bervariasi untuk menciptakan komposisi arah pasar. (contoh: Moving Average).
  • Indikator Kekuatan
    Kekuatan pasar menggambarkan intensitas dari opini pasar yang berhubungan dengan sebuah harga dengan melihat posisi pasar yang diambil oleh beragam pelaku pasar. Volume atau open interest adalah bahan dasar untuk indikator ini. Sinyal yang diberikan sifatnya coincident atau leading. (contoh: Volume)
  • Indikator Volatilitas
    Indikator volatilitas adalah istilah umum yang digunakan untuk menggambarkan kekuatan pergerakan, atau ukuran, dari fluktuasi harga harian terpisah dari arahnya. Umumnya, perubahan pada volatilitas cenderung mempengaruhi perubahan harga. (contoh: Bollinger Band)
  • Indikator Siklus
    Siklus digunakan untuk mengindikasikan adanya pola berulang dari pergerakan pasar, khusus untuk peristiwa berulang seperti musim, pemilihan umum, dan lainnya. Banyak pasar memiliki kecenderungan bergerak dalam pola siklus. Indikator siklus berguna untuk menentukan timing pola pasar tertentu. (contoh: Elliot Wave)
  • Indikator Support/Resistance
    Support resistance menggambarkan level harga dari kenaikan dan penurunan berulang  dan kemudian berbalik arah. (contoh: Trend Lines)
  • Indikator Momentum
    Momentum adalah istilah umum untuk menggambarkan kecepatan pergerakan harga di periode tertentu. Indikator momentum menentukan kekuatan atau kelemahan dari sebuah tren. Momentum berada tertinggi ketika mulainya sebuah trend dan terendah pada saat perubahan arah. Divergence arah apapun dari harga dan momentum mengindikasikan pergerakan telah melemah. Jika terjadi pergerakan harga ekstrim dengan momentum yang lemah, hal itu merupakan sinyal dari akhir pergerakan di arah tersebut. Jika momentum bergerak tren dengan kuat dan harga bergerak datar, hal itu memberikan sinyal adanya potensi perubahan arah harga. (contoh: RSI, Stochastic, MACD)

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Trading Forex dengan gunakan Berita

Posted by administrator on October 20, 2010
Analisa Teknikal (technical analysis), Commodity Channel Index, Faktor-faktor Penggerak Nilai Tukar Mata Uang, Forex Currency Trading Explained — Fx Trading, Forex Trading, Trading Forex dengan gunakan Berita / No Comments

Salah satu keuntungan terbesar dari trading forex adalah jam tradingnya, pasar buka 24 jam sehari. Data ekonomi memiliki kecenderungan sebagai penggerak utama untuk pergerakan jangka pendek di setiap pasar, tetapi hal ini memang terjadi di pasar forex, dimana respon terjadi bukan hanya pada data atau berita ekonomi dari Amerika, tetapi juga berita dari belahan dunia yang lain.

Salah satu keuntungan terbesar dari trading forex adalah jam tradingnya, pasar buka 24 jam sehari. Data ekonomi memiliki kecenderungan sebagai penggerak utama untuk pergerakan jangka pendek di setiap pasar, tetapi hal ini memang terjadi di pasar forex, dimana respon terjadi bukan hanya pada data atau berita ekonomi dari Amerika, tetapi juga berita dari belahan dunia yang lain.

Dengan setidaknya delapan mata uang utama tersedia dihampir setiap broker dimanapun di dunia ini dan lebih dari 17 jenis derivatifnya, selalu ada data ekonomi yang akan ditunggu oleh trader untuk digunakan dalam memutuskan posisi apa yang akan diambil. Secara umum, tidak kurang dari tujuh buah data ekonomi dirilis per hari dari delapan mata uang tersebut atau negara-negara yang memang menjadi patokan ekonomi dunia.

Jadi bagi mereka yang memilih trading dengan menggunakan berita, banyak sekali kesempatan yang muncul. Mari kita lihat data ekonomi mana saja yang akan dirilis dan kapan waktunya, mana yang paling relevan dengan pergerakan pasar forex, dan bagaimana trader harus memutuskan posisi apa yang diambil dari data penggerak pasar ini.

Mata uang mana yang harus menjadi fokus anda?
Yang pasti kedelapan mata uang dunia yang biasa disebut The Majors, dan mereka adalah:
1. US Dollar (USD)
2. Euro (EUR)
3. British Pound (GBP)
4. Japanese Yen (JPY)
5. Swiss Franc (CHF)
6. Canadian Dollar (CAD)
7. Australian Dollar (AUD)
8. New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

Pasangan-pasangan mata uang dari kombinasi diatas biasanya memiliki likuiditas diatas rata-rata, dan hal tersebutlah yang membuat peluang menjadi besar.

Mata uang – mata uang tersebut dapat dengan mudah ditransaksikan diseluruh dunia. Hal ini berarti anda dapat memilih pasangan mata uang mana yang akan anda transaksikan dan data ekonomi negara mana yang harus menjadi perhatian utama. Tetapi sebagai panduan umum, karena US Dollar merupakan pasangan utama dari mata uang lainnya, dengan persentase sekitar 90% dari semua perdagangan mata uang, dirilisnya data ekonomi Amerika cenderung menjadi hal yang paling berpengaruh terhadap pergerakan pasar.

Trading dengan menggunakan berita sebenarnya lebih sulit daripada kedengarannya. Bukan hanya karena angka konsensus atau kesepakatan pasar merupakan figur yang penting, tetapi angka prediksi dan revisi juga figur yang penting. Dan juga, beberapa jenis data lebih penting dari data yang lainnya, ini dapat diukur dari signifikansi negara mana yang merilis data tersebut dan tingkat kepentingan data tersebut dalam hubungannya dengan data lain yang dirilis disaat yang bersamaan.

Kapan data ekonomi akan dirilis?
Berikut ini adalah daftar waktu yang paling sering digunakan untuk merilis data ekonomi penting. Tetapi ada juga waktu tertentu yang harus menjadi perhatian anda jika akan trading dengan menggunakan berita.
Negara                  Mata Uang          Waktu (WIB)
Amerika Serikat       USD                 19.30 – 22.00
Jepang                       JPY                  05.50 – 10.30
Kanada                      CAD                 18.00 – 19.30
Inggris                       GBP                 13.00 – 15.30
Italia                          EUR                  14.45 – 16.00
Jerman                      EUR                  13.00 – 17.00
Perancis                     EUR                 13.45 – 15.00
Swiss                          CHF                 12.45 – 16.30
New Zealand             NZD                 03.45 – 08.00
Australia                    AUD                 04.30 – 06.30

Ketika ingin trading dengan menggunakan berita sebagai acuan, pertama kali yang harus anda ketahui adalah jadwal dirilisnya dan apa yang diharapkan dari data tersebut. Banyak sekali informasi yang tersedia mengenai jadwal dirilisnya data ekonomi, mungkin yang perlu anda lakukan adalah sedikit googling. Yang kedua, anda juga harus tahu data mana yang memiliki peranan penting. Dan mungkin yang paling penting adalah figur konsensusnya.

Figur konsensus ini biasanya dijadikan patokan apakah data tersebut sesuai dengan ekspektasi pasar atau tidak. Umumnya jika data berhasil mengalahkan konsensus, pasar akan bergerak bullish, dan jika data ternyata berada dibawah konsensus biasanya pasar akan memiliki kecenderungan bearish.

Secara umum, berikut ini adalah data-data ekonomi terpenting dari sebuah negara:
1. Keputusan suku bunga
2. Penjualan ritel
3. Inflasi, baik consumer price maupun producer price index
4. Tingkat pengangguran
5. Produksi industrial
6. Survei sentimen bisnis
7. Survei tingkat kepercayaan konsumen
8. Neraca perdagangan
9. Survei sektor manufaktur

Sumber: Investopedia, FXCM

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Faktor-faktor Penggerak Nilai Tukar Mata Uang

Posted by administrator on October 20, 2010
Analisa Teknikal (technical analysis), Commodity Channel Index, Faktor-faktor Penggerak Nilai Tukar Mata Uang, Forex Currency Trading Explained — Fx Trading, Forex Trading, Trading Forex dengan gunakan Berita / No Comments

Selain faktor seperti suku bunga dan inflasi, nilai tukar mata uang adalah salah atu faktor paling penting dari kondisi ekonomi relatif sebuah negara. Nilai tukar memainkan peran vital dalam tingkat perdagangan sebuah negara, dimana merupakan sesuatu yang paling kritis bagi mayoritas ekonomi pasar bebas di dunia. Karena alasan ini, nilai tukar mata uang adalah diantara yang paling diamati, dianalisis dan diatur kebijakannya oleh

Selain faktor seperti suku bunga dan inflasi, nilai tukar mata uang adalah salah atu faktor paling penting dari kondisi ekonomi relatif sebuah negara. Nilai tukar memainkan peran vital dalam tingkat perdagangan sebuah negara, dimana merupakan sesuatu yang paling kritis bagi mayoritas ekonomi pasar bebas di dunia. Karena alasan ini, nilai tukar mata uang adalah diantara yang paling diamati, dianalisis dan diatur kebijakannya oleh pemerintah. Tetapi nilai tukar juga berpengaruh pada skala yang lebih kecil juga, mereka mempengaruhi imbal hasil riil dari investasi seseorang. Disini kita akan melihat beberapa faktor utama dibalik pergerakan mata uang.

Sebelum kita melihatnya, kita harus menggambarkan bagaimana pergerakan mata uang mempengaruhi hubungan dagang antar negara. Nilai tukar mata uang yang lebih tinggi akan membuat ekspor sebuah negara lebih mahal dan impor lebih murah di pasar luar negeri, dan sebaliknya. Nilai tukar yang lebih tinggi juga diekspektasi akan menurunkan neraca dagang sebuah negara, sedangkan yang lebih rendah akan meningkatkannya.

Penggerak Nilai Tukar Mata Uang
Banyak faktor yang menentukan nilai tukar mata uang, dan kesemuannya berkaitan dengan hubungan perdagangan antara dua negara. Yang perlu diingat adalah bahwa nilai tukar ini relatif, dan diekspresikan sebagai sebuah perbandingan dari mata uang dua negara. Faktor-faktor ini juga tidak dalam susunan tertentu, seperti banyak aspek di ekonomi, kepentingan relatif dari faktor-faktor ini masih menjadi subyek dari banyak debat ahli ekonomi.

1. Diferensiasi Inflasi
Sebagai sebuah aturan umum, sebuah negara dengan tingkat inflasi rendah yang konsisten akan memperlihatkan nilai mata uang yang meningkat, seiring dengan peningkatan daya beli relatif dibanding dengan mata uang lain. Selama setengah abad terakhir, negara-negara dengan inflasi rendah termasuk Jepang, Jerman dan Swiss, sedangkan Amerika Serikat dan Kanada mencapai inflasi rendah belum selama negara-negara yang disebutkan diawal. Negara-negara yang memiliki inflasi yang lebih tinggi biasanya akan melihat depresiasi pada mata uang mereka dalam hubungan kepada mata uang dari partner dagang mereka. Hal ini juga biasanya dibarengi oleh suku bunga yang lebih tinggi.

2. Diferensiasi Suku Bunga
Suku bunga, inflasi dan nilai mata uang sangat memiliki korelasi yang tinggi. Dengan mengatur suku bunga, bank sentral mencoba mengatur pengaruh dari inflasi dan nilai mata uang, dan perubahan suku bunga akan berimbas pada inflasi dan nilai mata uang. Suku bunga yang lebih tinggi menawarkan para kreditur dalam ekonomi sebuah imbal hasil yang lebih tinggi relatif terhadap negara lain. Karena itu, suku bunga yang lebih tinggi akan menari modal asing dan menyebabkan nilai mata uang akan meningkat. Imbas dari suku bunga yang lebih tinggi akan berkurang jika inflasi sebuah negara lebih tinggi dibanding dengan negara lain, atau jika faktor tambahan menarik turun nilai mata uang. Dan begitu juga dalam kondisi sebaliknya, yang karena itu suku bunga lebih rendah cenderung menurunkan nilai mata uang.

3. Defisit Neraca Berjalan
Neraca berjalan adalah keseimbangan perdagangan antara sebuah negara dengan partner dagangnya, yang merefleksikan semua pembayaran antara negara untuk barang, jasa, suku bunga dan dividen. Defisit dalam neraca berjalan menandakan bahwa sebuah negara lebih banyak membeli dari luar negeri dibanding dengan menjualnya, dan meminjam modal dari sumber luar negeri untuk membiayai defisit tersebut. Dalam kata lain, negara membutuhkan lebih banyak mata uang asing daripada apa yang diterimanya dari penjualan untuk ekspor, dan menyuplai lebih banyak mata uangnya sendiri dibanding dengan tingkat permintaan luar negeri untuk produk-produknya. Tingkat permintaan berlebih untuk mata uang asing akan menurunkan nilai tukar mata uang sebuah negara sampai barang dan jasa domestik lebih murah untuk pelaku pasar asing, dan aset asing tidak terlalu mahal untuk menghasilkan penjualan bagi minat domestik.

4. Hutang Publik
Negara akan menghasilkan sebuah pembiayaan defisit dalam skala besar untuk membiayai proyek publik atau masyarakat dan pendanaan pemerintah.  Walaupun aktivitas seperti itu akan menstimulasi ekonomi domestik, negara yang memiliki defisit dan hutang publik besar menjadi kurang menarik bagi investor asing. Alasannya? Hutang yang besar akan memicu inflasi, dan jika inflasi meninggi, hutang tersebut akan dibayar dengan nilai tukar yang rendah dimasa mendatang.

Dalam skenario terburuk, pemerintah mungkin akan mencetak lebih banyak uang untuk membayar sebagian dari hutang-hutang tersebut, tetapi hal ini akan meningkatkan suplai uang yang pastinya akan meningkatkan inflasi. Lebih jauh, jika sebuah pemerintah tidak mampu menangani defisit melalui usaha domestik (seperti menjual obligasi dan meningkatkan suplai uang), lalu mereka harus meningkatkan jumlah surat berharga untuk dijual ke pelaku pasar asing, sehingga akan menurunkan nilai tukarnya. Akhirnya, sebuah hutang yang besar akan menimbulkan kecemasan bagi pihak luar jika mereka yakin mengenai resiko gagal bayar sebuah negara. Untuk alasan ini, peringkat hutang sebuah negara (seperti yang disediakan Moody’s Investor dan Fitch Rating) adalah sebuah penentu penting bagi nilai tukar mata uang.

5. Ketentuan Perdagangan
Sebuah rasio yang membandingkan antara harga ekspor dengan harga impor, ketentuan perdagangan berkaitan dengan negara berjalan dan keseimbangan pembayaran. Jika harga ekspor sebuah negara meningkat lebih besar daripada impor, hal ini bisa dikatakan ketentuan perdagangannya membaik. Meningkatkan ketentuang dagang menunjukkan tingkat permintaan lebih tinggi untuk ekspor negara tersebut. Hal ini, sebaliknya, akan menghasilkan peningkatan pendapatan dari ekspor, yang menyediakan peningkatan permintaan untuk mata uang negara (dan akan meningkatkan nilai mata uang). JIka harga ekspor meningkat dalam level yang lebih kecil daripada impornya, nilai mata uang akan menurun dibandingkan dengan partner dagangnya.

6. Stabilitas Politik dan Kinerja Ekonomi
Investor asing pastinya akan mencari negara yang stabil dengan kinerja ekonomi yang baik dimana mereka akan menginvestasikan uangnya. Sebuah negara dengan atribut positif seperti itu akan menarik dana investasi dari negara lain yang memiliki tingkat resiko politik dan ekonomi yang lebih tinggi. Kekacauan politik, contohnya, bisa menyebabkan hilangnya keyakinan pada mata uang dan adanya perpindahan modal menuju mata uang dari negara yang lebih stabil.

Penutup
Nilai tukar mata uang akan menentukan imbal hasil investasi riil. Mata uang yang menurun secara jelas akan mengurangi daya beli dari pendapatan dan keuntungan modal yang didapat dari jenis investasi apapun. Lebih lanjut, nilai tukar mata uang akan mempengaruhi faktor pendapatan lain seperti suku bungam inflasi dan bahkan keuntungan modal dari surat berharga domestik. Nilai tukar mata uang memang dihasilkan dari sejumlah faktor komplek yang bahkan bisa membuat banyak ahli ekonomi masih kebingungan, investor harus sedikit banyak mengerti bagaimana nilai mata uang dan daya tukarnya memainkan peranan penting dalam tingkat investasi yang dibuatnya.

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Forex Trading

Posted by administrator on October 20, 2010
Analisa Teknikal (technical analysis), Commodity Channel Index, Faktor-faktor Penggerak Nilai Tukar Mata Uang, Forex Currency Trading Explained — Fx Trading, Forex Trading, Trading Forex dengan gunakan Berita / No Comments

A forex demo reveals you how it works earlier than you leap into it for actual

Before airplane pilots really fly on their very own, they often observe in simulators that re-create what flying will be like with none actual risk. Since currency trading is as harmful financially as flying is bodily, it is sensible that there can be a forex demo available, too.

A forex demo is a great approach for a new investor to start. Studying books and taking online courses can train you the basics, however one of the simplest ways to study something is to get some hands-on experience. Nevertheless, with forex, hands-on experience may imply dropping your shirt. So a demo offers you actual-world coaching with no actual cash being involved.

Normally, the demonstration comes courtesy of a brokerage or different financial Web page that has an curiosity in currying your favor. The plan is that after you’ve examined your skills within the demo, you’ll get into the actual thing and take advantage of the paid services the demo provider has to supply — forex signals, managed accounts, automated trading, etc. The demo is sort of a free pattern, supplied within the hopes that you simply’ll enjoy it so much that you simply purchase one thing, too.

For that cause, be ought to be highly suspicious of any Web page that desires to cost for a demo. Considering there are actually dozens of websites that offer free demonstrations, there is completely no cause that you must pay for it.

Whenever you join a forex demo, you’re given a username and password and shown easy methods to use the demo system. Typically it entails downloading a piece of software program distinctive to the company; different times it’s merely done over the Internet. (Some demos require Macromedia Flash, which most browsers have installed, however which you’ll need the most recent model of.) You establish how much imaginary cash you need to begin with, and off you go!

Once you’re signed in to the forex demo, you do all of the stuff you would do if it had been a real-world situation: studying the charts, following the tendencies, visiting online forums to get different traders’ opinions, and making trades. The trades are recorded within the forex demo solely and don’t go anyplace into the actual market since there’s no actual cash involved. When the market modifications, this system determines how much you’d have gained or misplaced based mostly on the selections you made. You’re in a position to say, “Whew! Good thing this was only for observe!” or “Too unhealthy this wasn’t actual!” And once you’ve gained some experience using the forex demo, you can move on to the actual thing and start making some cash for real.

Forex Trading Australia – Major Economic Indicators

Australia is amongst the fastest growing trade markets in the world. It has seen growth in annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from US$642.7 billion (2005) to US$1025 billion (2009), accounting for 1.64% of the world economy. Its huge reserves of both agricultural and mineral resources are considered by many to be the reason for the nation’s economic success. Despite this, the Australian economy is driven mainly by the service sector.

The market recession, which engulfed the world economies in 2008, has had very little effect on Australia. A strong banking system ensured record year-over-year growth in 2009. It boasts an unemployment rate that is almost half that in the US and other major European countries. The only thing holding back this economy is its huge trade deficit. In 2008, it had a trade deficit of US$2.5 billion, which does not seem likely to shrink any time soon due to weak foreign demand and strong import needs.

Forex Trading Australia: Introduction

The major exports of Australia include wheat and wool as agricultural produce, minerals such as iron-ore and gold, and energy in the form of liquefied natural gas and coal. All its exports are raw products. Its list of imported items includes machinery and transport equipment, computers and office machines, and telecommunication lasers. China, the USA and Japan are some of Australia’s biggest trade partners.

The monetary system of Australia is controlled by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). This bank works to ensure a low inflation economy and efficient payment systems. But often, the trade deficit of the country comes in the way of the people-friendly policy making process. In March 2008, the RBA had to increase its interest rates on loans to 7.25% in order to meet domestic demand. The RBA also enters the forex market to ensure the stability of the Australian dollar in times of high market volatility or when the exchange rates show inconsistency with the economic parameters.

Forex Trading Australia: Major Trading Factors

Australia is the third largest producer of gold in the world. This provides strength to its currency in times when commodity prices increase. It is also a nation that depends heavily on its service sectors. This is a drawback in a way because the services sector is often hampered by severe weather conditions.

The island nation has one of the highest interest rates in the forex market. This has led to its popularity as a carry trade option for several traders.

To get detailed information on economic indicators of forex trading in Australia, visit Forex-RateIt. This is a premium resource sharing portal for the latest news, glossary and trends in the forex market.

Main Aspects Of  Forex Market Analysis

Online Forex Trading is a very complex work. There are many newbie traders that underestimate any tools, instruments and analysis and think that online trading is as simple as playing casino where you have chances 50/50. It is definitely not so! Forex trading is a very complicated system and only its total understanding, knowledge and experience can let you trade Forex successfully.

Though the interest in technical analysis is growing and sometimes it replaces the fundamental analysis, it is still obvious that technical analysis is not enough for a profitable trading in Forex market. The world economy is so dynamic and unpredictable so any news or events can have a big and sudden influence on the market and cannot be predicted by just looking at the graphs.

Financial calendar is a good instrument of the fundamental analysis .You can use it in order to be updated with all economical news and events and be ready to the changes in the market when something important happens in the world. The most influencing the market events usually happen in USA (USD) and Euro zone (Euro). That is the reason why 60% of global trading is done on EUR/USD currency pair. This is the most popular currency pair in Forex as Europe and USA have the biggest economical systems that influence all the world economy.

The monetary policy of Euro zone is regulated by ECB (European Central bank), while decisions are taken by Governing Council that consists of National and Central Bank and the Board (ECB president, vice-president and four other members). The goal of ECB’s policies first of all is the price stability. Their main aims are to increase the Consumer Price Index (make it not less than 2%) and to increase the money aggregate (where annual growth rate must be not less than 4.5%).

The Council meets every month, on Thursday of the second week when the interest rate is announced. During this meeting the members give the average review of euro zone economic development prospects and rates of interest that is the most important aspect to control liquidity.

The similar announcement of the interest rates in USA is also important for the fundamental analysis of USD. Interest rate of both USA and Europe is a good indicator for the currency pair EUR/USD. It is also recommended to watch the cross-currencies that don’t include USD for a better picture of a fundamental analysis. While trading with EUR/USD currency pair there is a good reason to analyze the cross-currencies such as EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF. The Swiss (CHF) economy, for example depends on Euro zone economy. That’s why the fall of EUR/CHF causes the fall in rate of EUR/USD.

There are many traders who focus on both technical and fundamental analysis while trading on Forex market. Though these analysis are very different by approach, they give the broader and detailed view of the market. It is important to be constantly updated in the world political and economical events while trading in Forex market, as any event in one of the country’s economy may cause the chain of movements in Forex market charts.

Forex Trading Find The Right Automatic Trading System

Well you are trading currency on the foreign currency market and as a consequence you’ve recently been informed we have a far better solution to accomplish your investments without having to involve your current brokerage. Precisely what you need can be described as trustworthy Automatic Trading System.

There are a number of Automatic Trading System products that you can purchase. Each will function in a very much the same method, but the key distinction between each system may be the experience associated with the creator(s) as well as precisely what method the particular Auto Trading System has been based upon. The actual base method for the package is actually what sorts out the men from the boys.

Should you be serious, I would like to be able to share with you some capabilities which can be significant to think about in the Automatic Trading System which you are likely to purchase and use to invest on the foreign currency market.

A profitable created Automatic Trading System: integrates years of forex trading experience, mastering how the market behaves, integrating long-term experience into the method, programming computer systems to master the particular method. In the same manner you just cannot open up your car hood in order to rebuild the engine without years of mechanical experience.

A truly fantastic Automatic Trading System has to be meticulous in every single market place situation. That is what rules, it again makes the vital big difference. Commercial Finance institutions know it and that’s how these companies have generated substantial profit margins for decades. Your ultimate Automatic Trading System must be making absolutely consistent and even results for in addition to long period of time never making average outcomes for a specific time period.

Your foreseeable future in the foreign currency market depends upon just how good your Automatic Trading System can adapt to new market forces, the difference somewhere between being able to generate profits and generate losses can be extremely fine. There are actually hardly any Automatic Trading Systems that can adapt to long term market forces.

Of course an additional crucial have to have feature in the Automatic Trading System is that the software must be invisible to your current brokering service. A few, not all broker agents can begin to play games with your account, such as raising the spread of any currency pair you might be buying and selling or maybe not allow you from trading together with your Automatic Trading System. An inbuilt sleuth mode allows you and your Automatic Trading System the flexibility to be able to make trades at anytime night or day every time the forex market is actually open.

I guess the last thing to go over will be the saving it and operation of the Automatic Trading System. Again these must be simple, a total newbie ought to be able to down this system and also have it functioning within a few minutes from downloading it. The operation guide book ought to be laid out in an simple structure consequently every single step is completely thorough and follows on from one another.

Anyone should be able to confirm all of the earlier mentioned product or service benefits within the product or service sales information when undertaking your search to the most suitable Automatic Trading System before you purchase. If the sales details has only pointed out some product or service benefits it is a signal to move on to your next product offer.

What’s Is Forex Trading

First , forex trading, like any speculation form, has one very important goal that lies above all else ; bring in money! If this is the premise we start out with, that making money is our goal , how is this achieved in our massive global market?

First, figure out whether you’re a fundamental or technical trader, or perhapse both . Later we’ll have more articles on this topic , but we’ll assume for now that you keep track of current events and world affairs and are therefore attracted to the fundamental side of the game . Then you have to ask, what are the most important factors fundamentally driving currency movement ?

If focusing on the fundamentals , one main thing is going to drive the decisions you make in forex trading; differentials in interest rates between countries . What is an interest rate differential ? Great question ! Suppose there is a short term interest rate of 4% on the Australian Dollar . Meaning that if you are a debtor and you live in Australia this base rate helps to determine what you pay on your home mortgage, your credit cards, etc . If you’re a creditor you can use as the base rate this 4% short term interest rate that will determine how much interest income you make on your investments ; such as CDs from your local bank . Now let’s suppose the US Dollar has a short term interest rate , set by the Federal Reserve , at 1% . How does all I’ve just said affect the movements of currency?

If 4% is the short term rate of the Australian Dollar and the short term rate of the US Dollar is 1% it’s all as simple as this : investors want their investments to have a higher yield and since there is more interest in Australia funds are then moved by them to the land “Down Under” . This shift in the investments going to Australia from the US mean that the US Dollar will weaken because the supply suddenly becomes greater than the demand and this strengthens the Australian Dollar since the demand is greater than its supply. Basic economic fundamentals at work here ; where there is more demand for something its value will rise .

Next time you think about your forex trading and what position to put on next , just ask yourself , “what country is likely to have higher rates moving forward and which country moving forward will probably have lower rates ?” Then buy currency that is the favorite for higher interest rates and currency favored for lower interest rates should be sold and see profits increase as investors go towards stronger currency and leave the weaker one . This is the essence of forex trading.

A Real Forex Signal Service for Real Forex Traders

My name is Michael Johnson and I’m the Founder and Chief Currency Analyst here at FXTakeover.

I’ve been trading currencies for six years and have done extensive studying of Fibonacci and Elliott Wave theory. I have coached dozens of traders in all age groups and all experience levels on how use technical analysis properly. I specialize in helping new traders achieve profitability using simple and time tested trading techniques.

Now that the formalities are out of the way, let’s discuss what FXTakeover’s forex signal service offers and how you, as a trader, can benefit from it.

One of the most common questions we receive is, What does your forex signal service offer that is different from all of the other signal providers?”

We pride ourselves on maintaining an educational environment for our members. As part of our service you will receive one on one mentoring as you place our system and discretionary trades. Members are also encouraged to discuss and seek advice for positions of their own. We, in turn, will give feedback, encouragement and instruction while assisting members in the management of their position.

Furthermore, our forex signal service includes trading signals that are generated from our proprietary trading model, MADX. MADX generates trading signals for our members every trading day, at the same time, for the same currency pair. Unlike other forex signal services that give traders multiple take profit levels, MADX gives traders a single target and stop loss level to go along with the entry signal. Overall, our approach will allow you, as a member, the ability to go about your every day life with minimal interference.

We also offer discretionary trading signals to our members. These signals do not have a scheduled time and are sent to members when a trading opportunity presents itself. Please keep in mind that we do not simply instruct members to initiate a particular position. We explain the entire thought process and reason for the position. We also give video updates that explain the position in detail and include our definitive stop loss and target levels.

As you have certainly noticed, our forex signal service offers many benefits. We believe that the sum of our products and services are equal to one distinct advantage. The advantage is trading diversification. Trading diversification simply means that members initiate positions based on the two major forms of trading, mechanical/systematic trade entries and discretionary trade entries. This approach helps alleviate trade anxiety which can lead to an individual placing too many trades.

If you are ready to take your trading to the next level and begin a new life with the financial freedom to follow your dreams, our methods and approach will certainly help you get there. Our forex signal service will assist anyone, regardless of knowledge and experience with trading. Let us give you the signals you need to enhance your trading and make money online with forex.

Forex Tips For Successful Trading

In this article we would like to share our Forex trading experience with other traders who have no or little Forex trading skills.

1. If you are going to start real trading in Forex, invest the available funds only. Never use your last money for online trading that you cannot afford to loose. If you don’t have available budget, it is better not to start real trading now in order to avoid the psychological pressure from yourself and your family. You must feel free and emotionless while trading in Forex market.

2. Don’t expect always win and make profit while trading Forex. Even the most experienced traders have losses. The skill is to know to carry your losses and increase the number of profitable positions.

3. Don’t go against your own strategy. Experience shows that you should not change your decision every time when the quotes jump or make a rapid movement. Not following your trading strategy may lead to the unsuccessful trading. Once you have developed your trading strategy, follow it in any trading conditions.

4. Don’t follow the bulk of traders. Experienced traders are often feel uncomfortable when they see that their positions are the same as that of the majority of traders. Experience shows that the majority is often mistaken and the opinion of the crowd will be in most cases wrong. There are many advisers, signals and analytics around. It is clear that in many cases these tools give wrong recommendations so sometimes it is smart to act controversially.

5.Take control of your emotions. Keep yourself calm and emotionless when you trade. If during long practice you gained enough skills and developed good trading strategy, uncontrolled emotions can ruin everything and bring you much looses.

6. Don’t follow advices of other traders. Online Forex trading is an individual work and no one knows for sure where the market is going to go. Practice as much as possible to find your best trading strategy that will let you have more profitable positions than losses and follow it. Even if during your trading you make a mistake, this is your mistake and not of someone else and you will be able to analyze your wrong decision and make sure you don’t make the same mistake in the future. This is the way how you can improve your trading strategy and have fewer losses in while trading in Forex.

7. When trading, focus on few currency pairs and watch their price changes. Always analyze the rates and trends of the group of chosen currencies to carry out successful trading. For example if one of the currency becomes stronger it makes the other one weaker and causes the price changes. The experienced traders always try to buy the stronger and sell the weaker currencies.

8. Always analyse your traders and look for the way to improve your trading strategy. There is no existing strategy that gives 100% profit. But if you manage to develop a strategy that gives for sure at least 55% profit, it is already a great achievement!

Deciding Among Web-based Forex Techniques for your Currency Trading

Forex trading is not actually new in the finance marketplace. In point of fact, it’s not merely acknowledged by large players on the planet, but also by not so big businesses and even individuals lately. At this moment, forex is no longer reigned over by the big members; individuals from almost all avenues of life can in fact do forex trading.

Before plunging in transacting, it is important to comprehend certain terms which have been made use of in the marketplace. A particular fundamental key phrase will be the forex trading method. What it is about, and also precisely what is its use.

The rise of the internet has transformed the public presence of forex trading. Due to this quite treasured system, the Forex sector is easier to access, rendering it far more convenient to undersized members. And all most especially, all this happens in real time, which is why online investors can in fact produce swift choices relating to their trade.

Currency trading method is ergonomic and also intuitive. All of the mandatory attributes associated with forex trading can be performed from your main screen. You are able to place a trade and leave an order. And furthermore, also you can carry out margin investigation and also position/order direction.

There are numerous organizations, located in distinct nations around the world, which will provide you with a forex trading method. The very first element that your method ordinarily will incorporate is financial commitment of money. Certain corporations would probably require you to commit just five dollars while some could certainly ask you for as high as 500 dollars for in advance obligations. Fx solutions substantially vary, and it will depend predominantly on the provider offering such service.

With the method, you can buy firms, securities, and make ventures even in other places. It is easy to greatly enhance your prosperity and individual preferences by way of purchasing a forex trading method. By investing some initial capital, you can make all the more money down the road. The forex trading method a growing number of investors know about is built amongst top providers, traders, and also intercontinental currencies.

The trading method can be in the real world or online. You are liberated to opt for which method works effectively for you. Having said that, online trading systems are actually gaining more and more worldwide recognition as you have got easy accessibility to the capital that you’ve invested. Offline trading systems normally will involve loads of documents; while with an online method, you’ll be able to immediately make investments, buy and sell, move, and remove money faster.

All it requires is for you to find out about the investment, and the way to have confidence in the best fx brokers in the event that you may need to make extra choices down the road. You have to be involved with a firm which you can contact whenever you need during a business day. This particular corporation must be able to supply you with a phone number, fax number, and email address. Steer clear from corporations which do not reveal this type of information.

Without the right investing method, you cannot buy and sell successfully. Accordingly you are required to go with a method that is certainly suited to you as an individual. You have to consider the currency trading style and the threat which it entails. A method which usually concentrates much more in hazard and money management strategies is an efficient one. Locate a firm that has been in business for ages and the ones that have confirmed certified experience. It also needs to furnish you with methods and strategies that will help when it comes to formulating your personal online trading method. If you select the correct company, you will discover one that’s of best bang for your buck.

Your choice of suitable, and in all probability the best, forex trading method is one of the first details you will need discover within forex trading. You’ll find three elements frequently thought about when deciding on a forex trading method, specifically: profitability, acceptability, and one that fits your daily routine.

Profitability is in all probability the key consideration. People invest resources to produce revenue, and a good method should provide that. It’s revealed through dollar amounts or pips/month.

Every method has a drawdown, which is as well listed in pips. It’s the most important decline in equity up to now. In comparing and contrasting diverse products, you might want to take a close gaze on its traditional drawdown.

Furthermore pay attention to the programs revenue and reduction ration, and also its win and loss percentage. The method must have reliability and you can effectively tell this by way of considering their month to month or quarterly, and yearly results.

Once you have selected a method, read and learn all about it, and you will definitely attain a lot from your investment.

Foreign exchange Trading- Are You Gaining Or Losing?

Did you know which you can find a industry that is open 24 hours a day? The industry is referred to as Forex industry and if you go there, you can’t find services, commodities and goods. The Forex industry could be the place where different kinds of currencies are traded. In each trade, two currencies are involved. For instance, you can market your Canadian dollars for Euros; or you can pay Japanese Yen for US dollars. Forex rates or exchange rates can change unexpectedly. You may need to monitor these exchange rates to be able to figure out if the price of a particular currency elevated or decreased.

Changes within the Forex industry normally occur quickly and so it’s crucial for traders to keep track of the industry. Political and economic events can influence the modifications within the Forex industry. If you want to figure out whether you are gaining or losing in Forex trading, this article can help you with the calculations.

The Forex investment is greatly affected by the exchange rate and to be able to understand the relationship between the two, you must also be familiar with Forex quotes. Like the currency pairs, Forex quotes can be discovered in pairs at the same time. Here is really a extremely excellent example:

one.Suppose the currency pair is USD (US dollar) and CAD (Canadian dollar)

The Forex quote for this pair is USD/CAD=170.50; this is interpreted as ‘every one US dollar is equivalent to 170.50 CAD. The currency discovered at the left side is known as the base currency and it’s usually equivalent to one. The currency discovered at the right side is referred to as counter currency. The stronger currency is usually the base currency and in this case, the USD. The Forex quote’s central currency is USD and so you can find it in most Forex quotes.

How can you figure out if you are earning profits or not? You are able to use one more example.

2.This time use EUR to USD. Assuming that the Forex rate is one.0857; in this example, the USD could be the weaker currency. Should you bought one,000 Euros, you may need to pay $1,085.70. Following a year, the Forex rate was at one.2083 and this signifies that the Euro’s value elevated. Should you choose to market the one,000 Euros now, you may get $1,208.30; now, in this transaction, you gained $122.60. What if the Forex rate a year right after was one.0576? This signifies that the Euro’s value weakened. Should you still choose to market the one,000 Euros, you may only receive $1,057.60 which signifies which you lost $28.10; did you get it?

Forex trading involves lots of hazards just like mutual funds and stocks. The fluctuations within the exchange industry are responsible for such hazards. Low level hazards like government bonds within the long-term can give returns but are quite low. If you want to get greater returns, you need to invest in Forex trading but you need to face greater level hazards.

You should set financial goals for the short term, at the same time as for the extended term. By doing so, it is going to be much simpler to balance the hazards involved and the security. You is going to be able to conduct your trades with ease and comfort. Make use of all the obtainable Forex trading tools so which you can make wise and profitable trades. Following reading this article, you can already calculate if you are gaining profits or not.

Trading Forex According To The Charts

Forex charts is one of the most important trading instruments in online trading, whether you are trading futures, shares, indices or Forex. For many traders Forex charts is a key to successful trading as they build their whole Forex trading strategy basing on the information that they get from the charts only. You can know a lot from a simple chart for a certain currency pair: historical movements, past and present quotes, trends and suggest the future trends. But before you start trading using the charts, you need to learn and practice in order to understand them.

Reading the charts is called a technical analysis. In general there are two types of the analysis: technical and fundamental. While technical is concentrated on the charts, fundamental is based on the world economical events and financial news. There are traders who trade using only one of the analysis types, but there also traders who concentrate their attention on both technical and fundamental analysis in order to have the full information about the certain currency pairs that they trade with. In this article we will give you an introduction to the charts trading.

In order to start you will need a demo trading account. Almost all Forex trading brokers provide their traders with a free demo account where you can practice your trading skills using the real quotes and graphs. When you register for a demo account you can choose few currency pairs’ charts that you will watch and practice on. We recommend you to start with the currency pairs that include USD, for example EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/SGD, etc. The USD currency pairs are the most active and have lower spreads. Besides it is much better if you trade with only few currency pairs and watch their movements. When you know what moves these currencies and how they react on different factors it will be easier for you to predict their directions. Most all professional traders stick to a few currency pairs and trade with them only.

You can set your chart for different time frames according to your trading strategy. The usual time frames that charts offer are from 1 min to a week. Means that each candle stick that you see in the chart is creating during the time frame you set. So if you have an hour of your free time to practice your trading, we recommend you to set your chart on a 5 min time frame, so every 5 min when the last candle stick completes you will be able to make a decision regarding your trading. But we recommend using the little time frames like up to 1 hour for practice purpose only. Most of the professional traders use 1 day time frame or even 1 week targeting for the long term trading. The long term trading is more accurate and has more chances for brining you good profit. But on the other side the long term and high time frame of your chart demand higher investments and big margin.

Forex Robot Reviews – Forex Robot Profits?

A recent trend in the Forex market has been the rising use of Forex robots. People who are new to Forex trading, people who are not very knowledgeable yet in Forex trading are using these pieces of software to help them make money in the Forex market.

So what are the possibilities of a forex robot? Because they’re just pieces of software, they can do many tasks all at once without getting fatigued. Unlike people they don’t need any time off or bonuses or anything like that. So what you end up with is a 24 seven monitoring solution that works hard so you don’t have to. Besides this, Forex robots have the capability to exit and enter trades that have a high likelihood of you profiting. It can analyze the changes that are currently happening in the Forex market. One robot that can do this kind of analysis on the fly is FAP Turbo.

Ivy bot is a very popular forex robot on the market today. The reason being is that it has the capability to adjust with the changes in the market on the fly. In addition to that they can do very sophisticated analysis. Also it can predict what the market will be like in the next couple hours. The reason being is that the people behind the bot have been in the Forex trade for over 40 years. Their knowledge and experience are at your fingertips if you use this bot.

FAP Turbo is very popular in the Forex market because it has been proven to have a high percentage of profitable trades compared to other Forex robots. You need to keep in mind that you can always try the robot before you have to buy. That way you can make sure that the bot is going to fit your particular style and needs. Once you able to get your robot working the way you want to, your trading is going to be a lot easier, and you will put in considerably less hours!

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Commodity Channel Index

Posted by administrator on October 20, 2010
Analisa Teknikal (technical analysis), Commodity Channel Index, Faktor-faktor Penggerak Nilai Tukar Mata Uang, Forex Currency Trading Explained — Fx Trading, Forex Trading, Trading Forex dengan gunakan Berita / No Comments

Seperti banyak oscillator lainnya, CCI dikembangkan untuk mengetahui tingkat overbought dan oversold. CCI melakukan ini dengan mengukur hubungan antara harga dan sebuah moving average (MA), atau secara lebih spesifik, adalah deviasi normal dari rata

Commodity Channel Index atau yang biasa disingkat CCI adalah sebuah oscillator yang aslinya dikembangkan oleh Donald Lambert dan masuk kedalam bukunya dengan judul Commodities Channel Index: Tools for Trading Cyclical Trends. Sejak dikenalkan, indikator ini telah mendapatkan popularitas dan saat ini adalah alat analisa teknikal umum yang digunakan trader dan investor untuk mengidentifikasi tren siklus, bukan hanya untuk komoditi tetapi juga saham dan mata uang.

Definisi CCI
Seperti banyak oscillator lainnya, CCI dikembangkan untuk mengetahui tingkat overbought dan oversold. CCI melakukan ini dengan mengukur hubungan antara harga dan sebuah moving average (MA), atau secara lebih spesifik, adalah deviasi normal dari rata-rata tersebut. Rumus CCI dibawah ini akan mengilustrasikan bagaimana pengukuran hal tersebut.

Gambar Rumus CCI

Rumus CCI

Asumsi yang mendasari indikator ini adalah bahwa komoditi (saham dan mata uang juga) bergerak dalam sebuah siklus, dengan harga tertinggi dan terendah terjadi pada sebuah interval waktu.

Salah satu yang terpenting dalam mengukur CCI adalah menentukan interval waktu, dimana memainkan peranan penting dalam mempertajam keakuratan CCI. Karena tujuannya adalah memprediksi sebuah siklus dengan menggunakan moving averages, semakin banyak jumlah periode moving average yang masuk kedalam siklus, semakin akurat rata-rata tersebut. Ini juga berlaku dibanyak oscillator lainnya. Jadi, walaupun banyak orang yang menggunakan setting-an dasar dengan periode 20 untuk perhitungan CCI, sebuah interval waktu yang lebih akaurat akan mengurangi jumlah false signal yang mungkin terjadi.

Gambar CCI 1

Definisi CCI

Berikut ini adalah beberapa langkah sederhana yang bisa menentukan interval optimal untuk perhitungannya:
1. Buka grafik harian untuk jangka waktu satu tahun
2. Tentukan dua harga tertinggi dan dua harga terendah pada grafik tersebut
3. Catat interval waktu antara dua harga tertinggi dan terendah tersebut (panjang siklus).
4. Bagi interval waktu tersebut dengan tiga untuk mendapatkan interval waktu yang optimal untuk digunakan dalam perhitungan (sepertiga dari siklus).

Namun anda tidak perlu bingung-bingung untuk menghitungnya secara manual karena CCI adalah sebuah indikator yang hampir tersedia disemua program aplikasi grafik. Mayoritas program-program ini hanya meminta anda untuk memasukkan interval waktu yang akan digunakan.

Aplikasi CCI
CCI ini sebenarnya serupa dengan oscillator lainnya, dan digunakan juga dengan cara yang sama. Karena sekitar 70% – 80% pergerakan CCI berada diantara +100 dan -100, maka level diluar kisaran tersebut menjadi fokus sinyal buy dan sell.

Potensi Sinyal Sell
* CCI naik melewati level 100 dan mulai mengarah kebawah
* Adanya divergence bearis antara CCI dan pergerakan harga, yang dikarakteristikan dengan adanya penurunan pada CCI sedangkan harga terus bergerak naik atau sideways.

Gambar CCI 2

Sell Signal CCI

Potensi Sinyal Buy
* CCI turun melewati level -100 dan mulai mengarah keatas
* Adanya bullish divergence dimana CCI bergerak naik sedangkan harga malah bergerak turun atau sideway.

Gambar CCI 3

Buy Signal CCI

CCI yang menggunakan periode waktu yang lebih singkat akan memiliki volatilitas yang lebih tinggi dan bisa menghasilkan lebih sering false signal dalam pengaplikasiannya. Indikator ini bisa digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi pembalikan arah harga, pergerakan yang ekstrim dan kekuatan trend.

Bukan hanya itu, CCI juga bisa membentuk formasi trend dan hal ini bisa dimanfaatkan untuk melihat arah pergerakan pasar yag lebih panjang.

Gambar CCI 4

Divergence on CCI
Konfirmasi
Hal ini adalah sesuatu yang penting, dimana sama seperti metode analisa lainnya, untuk menggunakan CCI dengan indikator lainnya. Pivot point bekerja cukup baik dengan CCI karena kedua metode ini mencoba mencari titik perubahan arah. Beberapa pihak juga mengunakan moving average dalam penggunaannya. Biasanya garis moving averages digunakan sebagai patokan support resistance dalam penggabungannya.

Suplemen tambahan dalam penggunaan CCI bisa berasal dari pola candlestick, dimana bisa membantu dalam menemukan tops dan bottom.

Penutup
CCI merupakan alat analisa teknikal yang sangat berguna dalam menentukan titik beli dan jual siklus. Indikator ini akan memiliki tingkat keakuratan yang memadai jika interval waktu yang digunakan tepat dan digabungkan penggunaannya dengan indikator teknikal lainnya.

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